1. San Diego Chargers

A weak division and kind schedule put the Chargers at the top of the AFC West. With running back LaDainian Tomlinson and defensive back Antonio Cromartie going to the New York Jets, San Diego will have some major shoes to fill. Another big loss is nose tackle Jamal Williams. The Chargers moved up in the draft to get hard-nosed running back Ryan Mathews from Fresno State. He will make an immediate impact. Other additions include cornerback Donald Strickland, receiver Josh Reed, linebacker Donald Butler, left tackle Tra Thomas and defensive tackle Cam Thomas. The passing game is set with quarterback Phillip Rivers going to tight end Antonio Gates, veteran receivers Vincent Jackson and Malcolm Floyd, and third receiver Buster Davis. Linebacker Shawne Merriman should finally be 100% this season after knee surgery two years ago.

2. Oakland Raiders

You may not believe me, but the Raiders are on the rise with new quarterback Jason Campbell in to replace Jamarcus Russell. The defense has improved as well so I predict a second place finish in the AFC West. Darren McFadden and Michael Bush will compete in the backfield. On defense, Jay Richardson, Matt Shaugnessy and rookie Lamarr Houston are fighting to start opposite Richard Seymour at defensive end. At free safety, Michael Huff and Hiram Eugene are battling. The team’s success hinges on how well Campbell can let go of his past to start fresh in Oakland.

3. Denver Broncos

The Broncos made a curious pickup in the draft with quarterback Tim Tebow. He could be another bust for Josh McDaniels, whose coaching career in Denver remains in the balance after blowing a 6-0 start last year and failing to reach the playoffs. Kyle Orton is the starting quarterback. But, Brady Quinn and Tebow are ready to step in if Orton screws up. Brandon Marshall is gone at wide receiver, so rookie first-rounder Demaryius Thomas, Eddie Royal and Jabar Gaffney will try to fill the void. Knowshon Moreno and Correll Buckhalter will be competing for carries at running back. The offensive line is the biggest question mark, which doesn’t bode well when the offense isn’t even figured out yet.

4. Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs won’t get any better this year and didn’t make enough free agent moves, especially at running back, where they needed it. Running back Thomas Jones will help, but he doesn’t have enough of a supporting cast on offense. Also, the defense ranked third worst in the league in offensive yards allowed per game. Adding offensive coordinator Charlie Weis and defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel should help mature quarterback Matt Cassel, but not quick enough for this season. Dexter McCluster and Jerheme Urban add depth at wide receiver with the aging Chris Chambers and Dwayne Bowe. Rookie tight end Tony Moeaki has potential. But, the best NFL teams don’t rely on potential. They play in the here and now.

AFC West Division Winner Odds (provided by Party Bets)

San Diego Chargers: 7/20

Denver Broncos: 5/1

Kansas City Chiefs: 7/1

Oakland Raiders: 8/1