The Dubai Desert Classic begins Thursday at the Emirates Golf Club with the world’s best three players around the top of the odds. It’s the final event of the desert swing and has plenty of value. The $2.5 million tournament features Lee Westwood, Martin Kaymer and Tiger Woods—the top three players, respectively. This is the first time since 1994 that the world’s top three golfers are playing in a non-major European Tour event.
Kaymer and Woods lead the odds to win the Dubai Desert Classic. After missing the cut in Qatar last week, Westwood is fourth in the odds behind Rory McIlroy. Westwood displayed inconsistency for the first time in a year and I expect him to bounce back with a good finish this week. But with a quality field like this, he could lose his top world ranking. Westwood finished second here last year.
Kaymer again can take Westwood’s world number one ranking with a win this week. After winning the 2010 Race to Dubai, he started the desert swing by winning the Abu Dhabi Championship. He won three consecutive events late in 2010 and has continued to play well this year. He has a good record at the Dubai Desert Classic with a second and two fourth place finishes in his last three appearances. He tied for 28th at the Qatar Masters last week after struggling early.
Woods won this event in 2006 and 2008. But, he still hasn’t recovered from a tumultuous 2010. He finished 44th in his first start this year at Torrey Pines, an even that is usually his bread and butter. He finished in the top 15 of his previous six events last year, but still isn’t worth backing until he gets a victory. There is no doubt that Woods is still trying to regain form since he hasn’t won a tournament in more than a year.
McIlroy won the 2009 Dubai Desert Classic and finished third at Abu Dhabi this year. He has six top four finishes in the last eight tournaments, so he is primed for a win soon. Other players with good value are Edoardo Molinari and Miguel Angel Jimenez. Molinari came in fourth last year here and finished eighth his last time out at the Volvo Champions. Jimenez is the 2010 Dubai Desert Classic champion and may be worth backing to finish in the top 10.
2011 Dubai Desert Classic Outright Odds (provided by Party Bets)
Tiger Woods: 5/1
Martin Kaymer: 5/1
Rory McIlroy: 7/1
Lee Westwood: 11/1
Alvaro Quiros: 16/1
Miguel Angel Jimenez: 28/1
Edoardo Molinari: 28/1
Sergio Garcia: 33/1
Ross Fisher: 40/1
Herik Stenson: 40/1
Matteo Manassero: 40/1
Thomas Bjorn: 50/1
Thonchai Jaidee: 50/1
Seung-Yul Noh: 50/1
Richard Green: 50/1