Yesterday’s NBA betting preview of the Western Conference started with the Northwest. Today will include the Pacific and Southwest Divisions. First, let’s start with the Pacific, which includes the two-time defending champion Los Angeles Lakers…and not much else.
1. Los Angeles Lakers (5-0)
2009-10 record: 57-25 straight up, 33-46-3 against the spread
2010-11 season win total: 59.0
Nearly everyone is talking about a championship in Miami with the trio of LeBron James, Chris Bosh and Dwayne Wade, but the Lakers are still the team to beat. Sure, the Heat have talent, but the Lakers have a championship and coach Phil Jackson is back hoping to three-peat yet again.
It looks like Kobe Bryant’s minutes will be limited for the first time in his career after undergoing knee surgery over the summer. Bryant is only 32, but is entering his 15th NBA season so it will be good to get some rest before he burns out. Don’t worry, though. He’ll still get his insane number of shot attempts per game. Pau Gasol has blossomed offensively as a big man who can shoot but is still a woman on defense. Add in Lamar Odom, Ron Artest and Derek Fisher and you have the same championship-caliber lineup of last season, mostly because of Bryant. The Lakers have more depth this year to boot, with Shannon Brown, Matt Barnes and Theo Ratliff off the bench. Andrew Bynum dominated the games he was healthy for in the playoffs and he should be back around Thanksgiving from surgery.
The difference in the Lakers’ ATS record and SU record is noticeable. Be careful with your online betting from game to game with them. They may not get a ton of regular-season victories but they will do whatever is necessary to make the playoffs and get in line for another championship.
Pick: Under
2. Phoenix Suns (1-3)
2009-10 record: 54-28 straight up, 48-33-1 against the spread
2010-11 season win total: 37.0
The Suns aren’t getting much respect from bookmakers with Amare Stoudemire gone. Apparently, 17 wins went with him when he left. But the truth is Steve Nash is a proven winner. The two-time MVP has won 50 or more games in nine of the past 10 seasons. But, this will be his first season without a solid big-man like Dirk Nowitzki or Stoudemire. It will still be an uphill battle for Phoenix. Hedo Turkoglu arrives from a trade but he isn’t your prototypical power forward and will have a hard time matching up to the big guys of the Western Conference. Don’t expect the same kind of bank ATS numbers from the Suns this year. But, they have a significantly lower projected win total so watch the early season lines. It took 50 wins to make the Western Conference playoffs last year and the Suns may not get 50 this year, but over 37 seems reasonable.
Pick: Over
3. Los Angeles Clippers (1-4)
2009-10 record: 29-53 straight up, 35-46-1 against the spread
2010-11 season win total: 30
You may be wondering why the basement-dwelling Los Angeles Clippers are predicted to finish third in the Pacific Division. Well, they are finally building a solid unit and there isn’t much else in the division. After missing much of last year due to injury, Blake Griffin has shown he is the real deal. He averaged 17.3 points and 12.3 rebounds per game in the preseason. He will be a strong Rookie of the Year candidate with Washington’s John Wall and someone the Clippers can build a franchise around in years to come.
Point guard Baron Davis can be a leader for this club if he keeps his emotions in check when they go on a losing streak (which is bound to happen). Chris Kaman is a solid center who averaged 18.5 points and 9.3 rebounds last year. Add Ryan Gomes or rookie Al-Forug Aminu at small forward and you have a competitive frontcourt. Guard Eric Gordon got some valuable experience with Team USA over the summer. New coach Vinny Del Negro should get this team over .500, especially if Carmelo Anthony decides to go west rather than east if he leaves Denver.
Pick: Over
4. Golden State Warriors (3-1)
2009-10 record: 26-56 straight up, 47-34-1 against the spread
2010-11 season win total: 38.5
The Warriors’ big three of Stephen Curry, David Lee and Monta Ellis might not be as big as that of Miami or Boston, but they did combine to score 58 points last season. Lee averaged 15 points and 10 rebounds with the New York Knicks.
Their biggest issue will be defense after allowing 112 points per game last season. They got a good pickup in the draft with Ekpe Udoh, a shot-blocker from Baylor. But, he is recovering from a wrist injury and won’t be back until January. Last year, Golden State’s ATS record was 21 wins higher than their SU total. Curry is developing but don’t expect that kind of ATS again this year. It’s still a young and inexperienced team.
Pick: Under
5. Sacramento Kings (3-2)
2009-10 record: 25-57 straight up, 39-39-4 against the spread
2010-11 season win total: 34.5
Potential isn’t enough to compete in the Western Conference and that is all the Kings have. Guard Tyreke Evans was the NBA Rookie of the Year and forward Omri Casspi was solid last year. First-round draft pick DeMarcus Cousins (a beast from Kentucky) may eventually be an all-star center. But, they just aren’t developed enough yet. Samuel Dalembert will provide defense and shot-blocking. Carl Landry, who was Houston’s sixth man last season, will bring offense to the frontcourt. If they stay motivated, this team will finish over.500 but not much more.
Pick: Over
Pacific Division Winner Odds (provided by Ladbrokes)
Los Angeles Lakers: 1/20
Phoenix Suns: 10/1
Sacramento Kings: 22/1
Golden State Warriors: 28/1
Los Angeles Clippers: 50/1
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