Division previews for the Eastern Conference are done after the talented Southeast. It’s time to move on to the West, starting with the Northwest Division.
1. Oklahoma City Thunder (2-2)
2009-10 record: 50-32 straight up, 48-34 against the spread
2010-11 season win total: 54.0
This team has grown by leaps and bounds. They gave plenty of trouble to the eventual champion Los Angeles Lakers in the playoffs last year and they will be better this year. The Thunder have gone from a 20-win team to Western Conference elite status. Kevin Durant and company were huge ATS winners the last two seasons, but don’t expect those kind of lines this year. To win the Northwest, Oklahoma City will need Jeff Green to excel, reliability from either Byron Mullens or Cole Aldrich and a better long-range shooting percentage. They will gel as the season goes on so be careful early, but your best bet online is the over on the season win total because of their strong road play.
Pick: Over
2. Utah Jazz (2-2)
2009-10 record: 53-29 straight up, 49-30-3 against the spread
2010-11 season win total: 44.5
Without leading scorer and rebounder Carlos Boozer, Deron Williams will have to pick up the slack. Paul Millsap will fill Boozer’s role and fits well in Jerry Sloan’s offense. Mehmet Okur is recovering from an Achilles injury but Al Jefferson will fill in at center. The shooting guard position is the biggest question mark after letting Ronnie Brewer, Kyle Korver and Wesley Matthews go. Raja Bell and rookie Gordon Hayward (the Butler phenom) will get the nod instead. Williams will have to slow down the tempo to get Millsap and Jefferson involved. In other words, play the totals under early on as they figure out their offense. Williams may not be able to get this team in shape in time for 44 wins.
Pick: Under
3. Portland Trailblazers (4-1)
2009-10 record: 50-32 straight up, 44-36-2 against the spread
2010-11 season win total: 55
Portland is falling apart. Owner Paul Allen started looking for a new GM before releasing the other one and head coach Nate McMillan isn’t signed past this year. The undrafted Wesley Matthews got a nice contract even though the Trailblazers are already guard heavy. Brandon Roy wants the ball more and Andre Miller is a dribble-friendly point guard. Greg Oden and Joel Przybilla have knee injuries, which puts a lot of pressure on Marcus Camby and LaMarcus Aldridge in three-guard lineups.
Pick: Under
4. Denver Nuggets (2-2)
2009-10 record: 53-29 straight up, 35-41-6 against the spread
2010-11 season win total: 48.5
Carmelo Anthony wants out. Kenyon Martin is unhappy he didn’t get a contract extension. Chauncey Billups is saying that he doesn’t want to be around if Anthony gets traded. And, their head coach is recovering from cancer. The Nuggets are about to implode. The good news is that they may have the best backup point guard in Ty Lawson and one of the most underrated centers in Nene. J.R. Smith is a ball hog, but he can score 20 points off the bench any night of the week. Still, this roster has too much talent and just needs a little team unity.
Pick: Over
5. Minnesota Timberwolves (1-4)
2009-10 record: 15-67 straight up, 37-44-1 against the spread
2010-11 season win total: 20.5
Everyone is questioning GM David Kahn’s changes to the Timberwolves. Al Jefferson is gone, who was the bulk of what they got in the Kevin Garnett trade, for nothing but cap room. And, he’s excited about Darko Millicic’s potential this season. I don’t know what this guy is smoking. Michael Beasley was their best offseason pickup who wants to prove Miami wrong for letting him go, but they have nobody else. Enough said.
Pick: Under
Northwest Division Winner Odds (provided by Ladbrokes)
Oklahoma City Thunder: 6/5
Portland Trailblazers: 6/4
Denver Nuggets: 9/2
Utah Jazz: 8/1
Minnesota Timberwolves: 150/1
Comments